WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF RECREATING RUSSIA?

Abstract

In his essay, Zurab Tchiaberashvili discusses the prospects of Russia’s democratisation and its preconditions or obstacles. There is a growing body of scholarly literature addressing the question of what contributes to the development of democracy or what hinders its progress. Hence, the essay links some normative assertions to the Russian case, elaborating on the significance of institution- alised economy, civic and political societies, the rule of law, and state bureaucracy.

However, the primary intent of this essay is to discuss whether Russia’s current socioeconomic disposition can serve as a solid ground for its future democratisation.

Nowadays, the most critical variable when discussing the prospects of democratisation in the Russian context is the enduring war with Ukraine; therefore, this matter is essential in the paper, un- derlining its impacts on Russia’s socioeconomic and cultural circumstances.

According to the essay’s hypothesis, the defeat of an authoritarian regime in a war can be the impetus for democratisation; yet, in addition, (1) the civil and political readiness of society for trans- formation and (2) particular economic prerequisites are correspondingly essential. Russia’s economic growth and, to some extent, state modernisation began in the 2000s, although for decades, mod- ernisation has strengthened not democracy but authoritarianism. That is why the democratisation process needs socio-cultural prerequisites and economic growth.

Zurab Tchiaberashvili concludes that Russia’s prospective democratisation can be impeded due to three causes:

• By the time Russia’s defeat in the war is declared, Russia’s economy will most probably decline. The author stresses that returning to the 1991 terri- torial status quo may not be a sufficient precondition for lifting the Western sanctions imposed against Russia, and sanctions will continue functioning after the war ends.

• As for the cultural sphere, today’s educational and especially healthcare system standing cannot contribute to advancing Russia’s democratisation process.

• Neither can we be optimistic concerning consolidating Russian society around liberal-democratic ideas. As the war in Ukraine prolongs and more and more liberal-minded people hunted by the Kremlin leave Russia, there will probably be a lack of human capital for bottom-up transformations.